{"id":22872,"date":"2022-11-16T14:46:03","date_gmt":"2022-11-16T22:46:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/?p=22872"},"modified":"2022-11-29T15:40:43","modified_gmt":"2022-11-29T23:40:43","slug":"october-2022-rbc-economics-monthly-housing-market-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/october-2022-rbc-economics-monthly-housing-market-update\/","title":{"rendered":"October 2022 RBC Economics Monthly Housing Market Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: 1px solid #CCC; border-width: 1px; margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 100%;\" src=\"\/\/www.slideshare.net\/slideshow\/embed_code\/key\/lq0u1EWnxCCRBq\" width=\"768\" height=\"714\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; 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width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span>\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span> <\/iframe><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"h2 text-black\">Beginning of the end for Canada\u2019s housing market downturn?<\/h1>\n<p><span>Canada\u2019s housing market may be entering the latter stages of its cyclical downturn. The pace of decline is now slowing\u2014there was even a tiny monthly increase in home resales nationwide in October\u2014marking a notable shift from the deep fall in activity that took place over the spring and summer. Property values are still clearly coming down at this stage but last month\u2019s drop was the smallest since May. While we continue to think an inflection point is some ways off, it does suggest most of the price correction is likely behind us\u2014at least for Canada as a whole. Our view is that rising interest rates and the loss of affordability will keep market activity quiet into early-2023 and prices will bottom around spring.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><strong>First resales increase in eight months<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Home resales rose a slight 1.3% m\/m in October across Canada to 424,600 units (seasonally adjusted and annualized). This potentially signals market activity is nearing a bottom after sliding 36% over the previous seven months. Among the small majority of local markets recording a monthly increase were Victoria (+19.7%), Vancouver (+6.5%), Edmonton (+3.3%), Saskatoon (+6.3%), Winnipeg (+2.2%), Hamilton (+1.7%), Saint John (+2.7%) and Halifax (+9.2%). Sales in Toronto and Calgary were essentially flat in the month (edging up just 0.2% in both cases), and fell further in Ottawa (-2.9%), Montreal (-2.4%) and Quebec City (-1.6%). The number of existing homes changing hands remained below\u2014and often far below\u2014year ago levels in virtually every market.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-22873 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Home-Resales-in-Canada.png\" alt=\"Home Resales In Canada Chart\" width=\"1956\" height=\"1108\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Home-Resales-in-Canada.png 1956w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Home-Resales-in-Canada-360x204.png 360w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Home-Resales-in-Canada-750x425.png 750w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Home-Resales-in-Canada-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Home-Resales-in-Canada-1536x870.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Home-Resales-in-Canada-480x272.png 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1956px) 100vw, 1956px\" \/><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Price decline streak still going\u2026 but a little less strong<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The fall in home prices has yet to be broken. The aggregate MLS Home Price Index for Canada slipped for an eighth straight month in October (down 1.2% from September). It slipped below its year-ago level (-0.8%) for the first time in three years and it\u2019s now down 10% since the February peak.<\/p>\n<p>While the erosion of property values is widespread across the country, the magnitude varies considerably. Properties in Ontario and British Columbia have seen the larger losses (after seeing some of the larger gains earlier in the pandemic). Cambridge (-22%), London (-18%), Brantford (-18%), Kitchener-Waterloo (-17%), Kawartha Lakes (-17%) and Hamilton-Burlington (-17%) have recorded the steepest MLS HPI drop since their cyclical peak earlier this year in Ontario. Chilliwack (-18%) and the Fraser Valley (-12%) have led the decline in British Columbia.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-22874 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Sales-to-new-listings-ratio-in-Canada.png\" alt=\"Sales To New Listings Ratio In Canada Chart\" width=\"1954\" height=\"1078\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Sales-to-new-listings-ratio-in-Canada.png 1954w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Sales-to-new-listings-ratio-in-Canada-360x199.png 360w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Sales-to-new-listings-ratio-in-Canada-750x414.png 750w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Sales-to-new-listings-ratio-in-Canada-768x424.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Sales-to-new-listings-ratio-in-Canada-1536x847.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Sales-to-new-listings-ratio-in-Canada-480x265.png 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1954px) 100vw, 1954px\" \/><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Affordability issues weigh big on Toronto and Vancouver prices<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The correction shaved another 1.5% off the Toronto-area MLS HPI last month. It\u2019s now down more than 11% since the February peak (on a seasonally-adjusted basis). The downturn has so far been comparatively less severe in Vancouver. Its MLS HPI has fallen 5.3% since cresting in March. And the monthly rate of decline moderated significantly in October to just -0.9%. We doubt this will mark a turning point. We expect extremely poor affordability conditions will maintain intense downward pressure on property values in the area. The same goes for Toronto where we see prices continuing to fall in the near term.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-22875 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/MLS-Home-Price-Index-Canada.png\" alt=\"MLS Home Price Index Canada Chart\" width=\"1962\" height=\"1096\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/MLS-Home-Price-Index-Canada.png 1962w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/MLS-Home-Price-Index-Canada-360x201.png 360w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/MLS-Home-Price-Index-Canada-750x419.png 750w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/MLS-Home-Price-Index-Canada-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/MLS-Home-Price-Index-Canada-1536x858.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/MLS-Home-Price-Index-Canada-480x268.png 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1962px) 100vw, 1962px\" \/><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Calgary: the exception to the rule<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>There are very few markets bucking the general weakening trend. Calgary is one of them. While activity is down from sky-high levels at the start of this year, it\u2019s still far above pre-pandemic levels. And prices are holding up. The area\u2019s MLS HPI has essentially been stationary since April. We expect this to continue as demand-supply conditions are among the tightest in Canada.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Market unlikely to heat up anytime soon<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The market downturn may be in a late stage but it doesn\u2019t mean things are about to heat up again. We expect high\u2014 and still-rising\u2014interest rates will continue to challenge buyers for some time. This will keep activity quiet for a while longer even if it stabilizes near current levels. We think benchmark prices will keep trending lower until spring.<\/p>\n<div class=\"page\" title=\"Page 1\">\n<div class=\"layoutArea\">\n<div class=\"column\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-22876 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/october-snap.jpeg\" alt=\"October Market Snapshot Stats\" width=\"926\" height=\"320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/october-snap.jpeg 926w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/october-snap-360x124.jpeg 360w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/october-snap-750x259.jpeg 750w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/october-snap-768x265.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/october-snap-480x166.jpeg 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 926px) 100vw, 926px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/economics-articles\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">RBC Monthly Housing Market Update<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff\ufeff Beginning of the end for Canada\u2019s housing market downturn? Canada\u2019s housing market may be entering the latter stages of its cyclical downturn. The pace of decline is now slowing\u2014there was even a tiny monthly increase in home resales nationwide in October\u2014marking a notable shift from the deep fall in activity that took place over&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[5296,5299,5298,5297],"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":12,"label":"News"}],"post_tag":[{"value":5296,"label":"October 2022 RBC Economics Monthly Housing Market Update"},{"value":5299,"label":"RBC Economics"},{"value":5298,"label":"RBC Economics Housing Market"},{"value":5297,"label":"RBC Economics Monthly Housing Market Update"}]},"featured_image_src_large":false,"author_info":{"display_name":"Vicky Aulakh","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/author\/vicky\/"},"comment_info":0,"category_info":[{"term_id":12,"name":"News","slug":"news","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":12,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":24,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":12,"category_count":24,"category_description":"","cat_name":"News","category_nicename":"news","category_parent":0}],"tag_info":[{"term_id":5296,"name":"October 2022 RBC Economics Monthly Housing Market Update","slug":"october-2022-rbc-economics-monthly-housing-market-update","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":5296,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":1,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":5299,"name":"RBC Economics","slug":"rbc-economics","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":5299,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":1,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":5298,"name":"RBC Economics Housing Market","slug":"rbc-economics-housing-market","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":5298,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":1,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":5297,"name":"RBC Economics Monthly Housing Market Update","slug":"rbc-economics-monthly-housing-market-update","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":5297,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":1,"filter":"raw"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22872"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/33"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22872\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vancouvernewcondos.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}